Rolf Bienert, Managing und Technical Director bei der OpenADR Alliance. Foto: OpenADR Alliance

Comment: The dead live longer

By Rolf Bienert, Managing and Technical Director at the OpenADR Alliance

Electromobility has always had a difficult time in Germany, a country enamoured of the combustion engine. Sceptically eyed by consumers and neglected by the local automotive industry for a long time, it is almost a miracle that it was still possible to set the course for the urgently needed transport revolution in the face of the very real threats posed by climate change. However, the scepticism and reliance on the tried and tested (namely combustion engines and fossil fuels) have remained.

The relevant press also continues to be full of articles that list every movement in sales figures and new registrations and analyse them more or less neutrally – often with the conclusion that Germans prefer to rely on their combustion engines after all. However, overly tendentious reporting with lurid headlines proclaiming the end of the electric car even before its actual triumph should be treated with caution. On the one hand, the current decline in the market share of electric vehicles is directly linked to the expiry of state subsidies at a time when rising financing costs and the recession are making themselves felt in people’s wallets. On the other hand, premium manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes continue to dominate the market in Germany, focussing on plug-in hybrids on a large scale. In contrast, the range of smaller, powerful and affordable all-electric vehicles is still limited. In a European comparison, Germany was still in the middle of the e-mobility ranking in 2023, which is based on the Readiness Index. Even if the figures for 2024 have not yet been published, there is unlikely to have been any improvement in view of the latest sales figures.

But, and this is the good news, there is light at the end of the tunnel. For example, the market research company Dataforce predicts that the market share of electric vehicles in Germany will increase this year. Dataforce’s assessment is primarily based on the political will to fulfil both German and EU climate targets – above all the tightening of CO2 regulations. The technological advancement of e-mobility and falling financing costs could also contribute to this development.

However, Germany is also facing another challenge. In addition to the hesitantly initiated turnaround in transport, the Federal Republic has abandoned fossil fuels for energy production and intends to rely on renewable energies in the future – including the nuclear phase-out in 2023. Would the electricity grid even be able to cope with an increase in electric vehicles on German roads?

The short answer: yes. However, the long answer requires a number of premises – such as continuous growth in e-mobility and no overnight replacement. Although this is purely hypothetical, it would bring the grid to its knees in its current state due to the enormous amount of electricity required. In reality, however, the moderate increase in electric vehicles means there is sufficient room for manoeuvre to drive forward the expansion of renewable energies, expand the charging infrastructure and implement dynamic load management for the smart grid of tomorrow. For this smart grid, grid operators must be able to automatically adapt loads to the grid capacity and, for example with different tariffs, make drivers attractive offers so that they do not charge their vehicles at times of peak demand, for example. The technologies for such a smart grid are available, for example open standards and protocols such as OpenADR, EEBUS or OCPP, now it is a question of the political and social will to utilise them. Electric vehicles pose no risk here – and despite many opposing voices, they will be the most important component of a more environmentally friendly and efficient transport infrastructure in the future.

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13.01.2025   |  

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